Hamilton By-Election Results Highlight Rise of Reform UK and Shifting Scottish Political Landscape
The Hamilton by-election results have sent shockwaves through Scottish politics, underscoring the rapid rise of Reform UK and its growing influence across the country. With support for the SNP continuing to decline and the Conservatives collapsing in key areas, the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election is emerging as a defining moment ahead of next year’s Holyrood elections.
The Scottish by-election saw Labour narrowly win the seat, but the real headline was Reform UK’s surprising surge. The party, known for its pro-Brexit stance and led by Nigel Farage, secured 26% of the vote, coming in a close third—just five points behind Labour and outperforming the Conservatives by a staggering 20 points. The result is especially notable given that Hamilton, like most of Scotland, voted only 38% in favor of Brexit in 2016.
Reform UK Disrupts the Political Order
The Hamilton by-election confirms what recent polls have hinted at: Reform is becoming a serious electoral force, even in areas not traditionally aligned with its core message. Its performance in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse exceeded expectations and surpassed its national polling average of 19% in Scotland, effectively turning the constituency into a three-way marginal.
With the Conservative vote collapsing to just 6%—down 11 points from 2021—Reform UK is not only eclipsing the Tories in key battlegrounds but also attracting disillusioned Labour voters. Analysts suggest that one in six former Labour supporters, including those once backing Anas Sarwar, are now siding with Reform, posing a significant threat to Labour’s ambitions of making him the next First Minister of Scotland.
Labour’s Narrow Win: More Warning Than Victory
Though Labour managed to win Hamilton, their share of the vote dropped by two points from 2021, landing at 31%—far below the nearly 50% the party received in last year’s Westminster election in the same area. While technically a win, the narrow margin and weak turnout suggest Labour still has work to do if it hopes to lead the next Scottish Government.
This outcome starkly contrasts with Labour’s landslide in the Rutherglen by-election in 2023, where it surged to 59%. In Hamilton, the message is more cautionary: Reform is rising, the SNP is floundering, and Labour is not yet convincing enough to claim dominance.
SNP Faces Steep Decline
For the Scottish National Party, the by-election marked another major setback. The SNP vote dropped 17 percentage points from 2021, reflecting the party's ongoing struggle to retain support—even among pro-independence voters. In 2021, nearly 90% of Yes supporters backed the SNP; today, that figure has dwindled to just over 50%. This growing disillusionment stems largely from perceptions of poor governance and lack of progress on key issues.
Christina McKelvie, the SNP’s candidate in Hamilton, failed to hold the seat amid the broader party decline. As Anas Sarwar pushes Labour forward, and Reform UK capitalizes on voter frustration, the SNP risks slipping into minority rule—even if it remains technically in office after next May’s election.
What This Means for Scotland
If the Hamilton by-election is a sign of what’s to come, Scotland’s political map could be redrawn in 2026. The Reform party’s performance shows it can no longer be dismissed as a fringe movement. The Conservatives face being relegated to fourth place in Holyrood, while Labour’s pathway to power is far from guaranteed.
With Reform UK pulling support from both ends of the political spectrum, its impact on next year’s Scottish Parliament election could be transformative. The Hamilton by-election isn’t just a local story—it’s a snapshot of a volatile and rapidly changing national picture.
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